President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Thursday, March 26, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
With the dust settled after a nightmare midterm cycle for Republicans, many have begun wondering who in the Trump administration will pay the price.
The midterms could not have gone much worse for the GOP, which lost control of the House and Senate thanks to multiple upsets. In fact, the “blue tsunami” ended up being so extreme that Republican lost seats in both chambers that weren’t even viewed as being up for grabs.
In the immediate aftermath of the electoral wipeout, Vice President JD Vance released a statement explicitly blaming the election losses on the war in Iran. Later that night, President Donald Trump also acknowledged that the “short-term” pain of gas prices — largely fueled by the war — likely turned off Republican voters.
Naturally, Kalshi and Polymarket have seen an uptick in activity with markets regarding the Trump administration. On the Kalshi market titled, “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth led the pack with 57% odds by 3 p.m. ET Thursday. Right behind him was Special President Envoy Ric Grenell at 55%; and rounding out the top five was Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter (51%), Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward (48%), and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles (46%).
Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had the most activity by far, with their odds jumping by 22% and 32.5%, respecitvely, in the last 24 hours.
On Polymarket, Hegseth was again in the lead with odds of 60%. Behind him were Rubio (57%), Wiles (47%) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller (34%), and FBI Director Kash Patel (28%). Rubio’s jumped an enormous 35% from Wednesday. Hegseth’s odd’s, however, actually saw a decreased of 22%.
Although the midterms were just a few days ago, early signs have pointed to major changes within the Trump administration. The first domino to fall was Harmeet Dhillon, the assistant attorney general overseeing the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice. She announced her resignation Thursday.
Also on Thursday, The Independent reported that Rubio was “preparing to resign” and begin his presidential run for 2028. The White House has denied that reporting.
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