Mike Rogers with Haley Stevens, left (AP Photo/Jose Juarez); Abdul El-Sayed, right (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
The political news over the past two days has been dominated by a late-breaking endorsement in the Michigan Senate race that many media outlets framed as a “shock,” but for the Cook Political Report, it didn’t move the needle at all.
Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) propelled her name into headlines across the country Sunday when she announced that she was endorsing the Republican, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), over Abdul El-Sayed, who had defeated her in a bitterly fought primary. Numerous media reports portrayed Stevens and El-Sayed as continuing to spar after the primary, but Stevens’ decision to cross party lines still stunned many, sparked a mass resignation among her staff, and led to her expulsion from the Michigan Democratic Party.
Michigan is a swing state, having voted for President Donald Trump by 0.23% in 2016, Joe Biden by 2.8% in 2020, and Trump by 1.4% in 2024, and the Senate election has been one of the most closely watched races during this midterm cycle. Prior to the Stevens endorsement kerfuffle, polls showed El-Sayed ahead by single digits, but mostly within the margin of error; the current Real Clear Politics Polling Average has him up 5 points.
For the Cook Political Report, however, their analysis of the race does not expect Stevens’ defection to drag El-Sayed down.
In an update posted Monday evening, Cook’s Jessica Taylor — who just one day earlier had declared Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers to be a “stunning” move — decided this “November surprise” did not change their assessment.
“Democrats have the momentum in the final stretch,” wrote Taylor, and “are in a strong position to take back the upper chamber.”
Cook was making “one final ratings change” in the Senate races, and it was in the Democrats’ favor, Taylor continued, moving the Michigan race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
This race “has seen plenty of drama over the past 72 hours” from Stevens’ “shocking cross-party endorsement,” wrote Taylor, “[b]ut our decision to move this race was in the making before the endorsement fracas, and it did not change our view.”
Cook’s rating change drew from “new public and private polling, including a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend that put the race at an 11-point spread for El-Sayed,” Taylor explained, adding that neither Republicans nor Democrats actually expected the race to end up a “double-digit blowout” after the votes were counted, but El-Sayed has continued to solidify his support as the final hours of the election approached.
Earlier in the day, the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets showed bettors were making similar predictions, with El-Sayed’s odds improving on both platforms in the wake of Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers.
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