(Screengrab via CBS News) (Screengrab via CNN)
Rep. Haley Stevens’s (D-MI) sudden decision to endorse Republican Mike Rogers has actually been a benefit to Abdul El-Sayed (D), according to prediction markets.
On Sunday, Stevens rocked the political landscape when she announced her decision to endorse Rogers over El-Sayed. The move came after Stevens repeatedly pressured El-Sayed to condemn a campaign ad that connected the cost of living in the U.S. to the American government’s support for Israel and the war in Iran. The ad did not come from El-Sayed’s campaign.
Unsurprisingly, Stevens’ stunning decision was met with immediate outrage from the Democratic Party. Republicans, including President Donald Trump, expressed appreciation for her move against her own party in a crucial Senate race.
Despite the outrage from the left, traders think Stevens’s sudden reversal will actually help El-Sayed. On Nov. 1 at 1 p.m. ET — moments after Stevens announced the endorsement — El-Sayed’s odds to win were 69% on Kalshi.
Around the same time on Polymarket, his odds were also at 69%. An hour later, El-Sayed’s odds got a small bump up (70.6% on Kalshi, 72% on Polymarket).
By Monday morning, El-Sayed rose even more. At 9 a.m., his odds on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at 78% and 79%, respectively. Both figures were all-time highs for El-Sayed since he defeated Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic primary in August.
On prediction markets, odds are effectively determined by trading volume. Contracts on El-Sayed winning the election cost $0.78 on Kalshi, meaning 78% of traders think he will win.
The post Abdul El-Sayed’s Odds to Win Actually IMPROVE After Haley Stevens Jumps Ship, Per Prediction Markets first appeared on Mediaite.
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